CENTAF SWO BULLETIN 45 JOAF #355

File: 120596_aacnu_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 3
 
SUBJECT: CENTAF SWO BULLETIN 45 JOAF #355

DTG: 171201ZFEB91

 SWO BULLETIN 45
 FOXX31 XXXX 171143
 KQCK JOAF #355 VALID: 17/1200Z TC 18/1200Z FEB 91
 1. PART A: SYNOPTIC SITUATION/24HR OUTLOOK: AT 00Z, THE FRONT HAD
 PENETRATED THE AOR. A LOW CENTER (1005MB) WAS ANALYZED AT 36N/4OE
 W/A COLD FRONT BULGING E OF 40E, RECURVING TO 30N/40E, THEN TRAILING
 INTO THE RED SEA NEAR 27N. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT (29N/44E),
 ANOTHER LOW (1015MB) FORMED AT THE SFC UNDER STRONG
 DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 20KT WINDS WERE REPORTED NEAR THIS LOW
 AND VIS WAS RESTRICTED IN BLOWING SAND. AT 00Z, IT WAS EVIDENT THAT
 THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT HAD OUTRUN THE SFC SYSTEM AS THE SFC LOW7FRONT
 MOVD INTO IRAG. THE STJ WAS STILL ACTIVE, HOWEVER, AND THERE WERE
 REPORTS OF RAIN AT STATIONS UNDER THE THICKER CLOUD ALONG THE
 IRAQ/SAUDI BORDER. FNOC MODELS INITIALIZED WELL S OF 30N AND
 APPROX 4 HRS SLOW N  OF 3ON. EVOLUTION SUGGESTS THE CONTINUED DECAY
 OF THE FRONTAL FEATURE OVR THE NRN AOR.  IT WAS IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN
 THE SFC REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONT ON THE NEW FNOC RUN (OR ON THE OLD
 RUN), BUT 850MB WIND/STREAMLINE VALID AT 00Z SHOWS A TROF 29N/50E SW
 TO 25N/45E. THIS FEATURE IS LOST BY THE MODEL AFTER THAT. OVR THE
 NEXT 24HRS, FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE NERN AOR WHERE AMPLE RESIDUAL
 MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER
 CLEARING SKIES. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING. ALONG THE ERN
 COAST, THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NE TO E AND INCREASE  IN SPEED
 WITH  OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS BY MID MORNING.
 2. SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 18/00Z
 			(26N/S2E) 	(22N/64E)	(18N/40E)
 TEMP(C) 		21 		24 		24
 WAVE DIR 		080 		040 		160
 PERIOD SEC 		4 		8		4
 HEIOHT FT 		2 		7 		6
 3. PART C: METSAT DISCUSSION: STJ FLOW DURING LAST 12 HRS BEGINNING
 TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS NE AFRICA AND CNTRL AOR. BRANCH OF PFJ
 CROSSING SYRIA AND XTRM NRN IRAQ PROVIDING URPER SUPPORT FOR SFC
 FRONTAL SYSTEM IN IRAQ (SEE PARA 1). UPPER LVL RIDGE W/ BROAD AREA
 OF DIFLUENCE CONTINUES TO MOVE E FROM IRAQ INTO W IRAN CREATING
 MULTIPLE LYRD CICS CLOUDINESS. CLEARING LINE ON SATELLITE MOVING E
 ACRCSS NRN AOR AT 25KTS, DSPTS MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS W/PASSAGE OF
 VORT LOBE. AT 09Z, UPPER LVL CLEARING LIES OVR BAGHDAD (CENTERED NW
 THROUGH SE) ACROSS IRAQ. BKN SC CLOUDINESS OVR MED FORMING CLOSED -
 CELL SC IN POST FRONTAL COLD AIR OVR THE WRM WATERS, W/STJ AND ITS
 MINOR SHORT WAVES OVER LYING FRONTOLYSIZING FRONT IN NRN EGYPT.
 XTNSV BKN ACAS CIGS CONTINUED TO FORM AND ADVECT ENE INTO NW SAUDI,
 INTO THE KTO, THEN INTO THE ZAGROS MTNS. WEAKENING STJ FLOW OVR NE
 AFRICA INDICATED BY DECREASING CICS CIGS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
 SLT STJ RIDGING STILL EXISTS OVR NERN SAUDI, PERSIAN GULF, AND WRN
 IRAQ, W/THICK CICS CIGS ACROSS NRN SAUDI ARABIA AND KTO. IMBEDDED
 RASH IN NRN SAUDI ARABIA AND CNTRL IRAU THIS MORNING FROM VORT LOBE
 TAVERSING THROUGH IRAQ, PROVIDES SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE
 FOG  FORMATION WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF AOR
 REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUD FREE S OF 25N. -