TOAF VALID: 31/0500Z JAN 91

File: 120596_aacnf_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 3

SUBJECT: TOAF VALID: 31/0500Z JAN 91 - 05/0500Z FEB 91

THE TOAF IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE ARCENT AREA OF OPERATIONS.
Sl9NIFICANT DEVlATlONS MU3T BE COORDINATED WITH THE ARCENT SWO.

1. GENERAL SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION

A. CURRENT: A QS LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TURKEY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THIS LOW ACR0SS EASTERN SYRIA,
NORTHEASTERN JORDAN THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN MED. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROF IS SHOWN EXTENDING ALONG THE JORDAN/SAUDI BORDER TO VICINITY OF
AL JOUF (OESK). METSAT SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW ANO MlO LEVEL CLOUDINES
WITH BOTH FRONT AND TROF, HOWEVER THE CLOUDINESS ALONG THE TROF
HAS BEEN SLOWLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. THE SHORT WAVE WHICH HAD
BEEN OVER KUWAIT EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS MOVED INTO IRAN. THE SUB
TROP1CAL JET CONTINUES TO LIE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SAUDI
ARABIA. FROM JEDDAH TD DHAHRAN. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE -
ASS0CIATED WITH THE JET. UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAS BEEN INTERESTING THE
LAST SEVERAL DAY3. ACR0SS M03T OF THE AQ THE FLOW HAS BEEN HIQH -
ZONAL, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB TROPICAL JET. LOW ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS
ACROSS EASTERN EUROPE AND THE EASTERN MED. THIS UPPER TROF IS
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. THE TROF HAS BEEN QS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE TROF, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS
DEEPENING.

B. THE FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN MED WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN QS AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE SHORT
WAVE LOCATED NEAR AL JOUF WILL MDVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE BORDER
REGIONS OF SAUDI, IRAQ AND KUWAIT. SOME VARIABLE CLOuDINES3 AND
RAINSHOWER3 WILL 8E AS30CIATED WITH THE 3HORT WAYE, BuT THE MAJORITY
OF 1T WILL LIE OVER S0UTHERN IRAQ. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL IRAQ, AND DIE OUT
WHEN THE SHORT WAVE REACHES KUWAIT. THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL
CO NTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PEMINSULA,
BRINGING IN SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE S0UTHERN AO.

2. AREA OF OPERATIONS FORECASTS

A. COASTAL FORECAST (THROUGH 48HRS)
.
12HR 24HR 36HR 48HR
31/05-31/17Z 31/17-01/QSZ 01/05-01/17Z 01/17-02/OSZ
1. CIQS: 30 SCT 80 SCT 30 SCT 80 SCT
80 SCT 80 SCT VRBL BKN
- VRBL BKN
, .
2. VIS/OBST: 8000/HZ 8000/HZ 8000/HZ 8000/HZ -
- ISOLD ISOLD OCNL
4800/SA RASH 4800/SA