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File: 120596_aacmi_01.txt
UNCLAS
ATTENTION: PLEASE ROUTE ALL MESSAGE TRAFFIC DESTINED FOR THE TFU
TO RHIUFZA/CENTAF WEATHER. THANK YOU.
SWO BULLETIN 45
FOXX31 XXXX 191200
KQQG JOAF #297 VALID: 10/12002 TO 20/12002 JAN 91
1. (U) PART A: SYNOPTIC SITUATION:
THE UPR LVL PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED. THE STJ IS MAIN
TAINING ITS WSW TO ENE ORIENTATION W/ STRONG MXS MOVG THRU THE FLOW.
MODELS SHOW NO CHANGES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE S/WVS ARE HINDERING
THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE IN THE ERN AOR, BUT ALL PRODUCTS SHOW THE
LONGWAVE TROF IN THE ERN MED CONTG TO DEEPEN AND RETROGRADE SLGTY TO
THE SW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WRN STJ CLDS TO MOVE FARTHER S THRU THE
PERIOD, WHICH WILL IN TURN DECR THE CLDS/WX ASSOC WITH THE NEXT FEW
S/WVS. THE 00Z LAWC A SHOWS LOW IN THE S/ERN MED ASSOC WITH ONE OF
THE S/WVS AT 33N/27E (TO1SMB), W/ AN ASSOC TROF XTNDG SW TO 28N/21E.
THE SFC RIDGE XTNDS-FROM ERN SA NNE TO NE IRAN WITH TWO CNTRS OF UNKN
INTENSITY AT 22N/52E AND 35N/59E. THREE MAJOR AREAS OF TROFING ARE
FOUND IN SA/RED SEA AREAS. THE FIRST XTNDS FROM SUDAN TO THE NRN RED -
BEA BTWN 18N/37E, 25N/3GE1 AND 29N/34E. THE SECOND XTNDS FROM THE
CNTL RED SEA NE INTO SERN IA BTWN 22N/38E 27N/45E, AND 31N/46E, THE
THIRD XTNDS FROM THE SRN RED SEA ACROSS YEMEN AND INTO THE NRN
ARABIAN SEA. LOW LVL CONVG, ALG W/ SE FLOW AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
CONSPIRED TO CAUSE AN XINSIVE AREA OF FG/ST IN THE E/NERN AOR THIS
M??G. WITH NO SIG CHANGE XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD, THIS SCENARIO PLAY
Au^IN, WITH THE WORST CONDS PERSISTG IN THE AREAS CVRD BY THE STJ
UPPER LVL CIGS. XPCT ISOLD RASA/TSTMS IN BOTH THE NRN AND N/CNTL
AREAS OF THE AOR AS THE S/WVS MOVE THRu DURING THIS PERIOD. .
2. (U) PART B: SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 20/002
POINT 1 POINT 2 POINT 3
(26N/52E) (22N/64E) (18N/40E)
TEMP (C) 21 24 27
WAVE DIR 010 050 130
PERIOD SEC 4 4 4
HEIGHT FT 4 4 4
3, (U) PART C:-METSAT DISCUSSION:
METSAT IMAGERY THIS MORNG THRU 09Z SHOWED THE SAME STJ CICS ACROSS
THE CNTL AOR W/ NO SIG CHANGE IN ORIENTATION. M/SWVS IN THE FLOW
(24N/36E, 27N/44E, 30N/50E' MOVG AT 30KTS) ARE ENHANCING SCT/BKN AC/
AS FROM THE WRN ARABIAN MTNS TO THE ZAGROS MTNS. IQ AND NRN SA, CVRD
BY RAD FG THIS MORNG ARE SLWLY LFTG TO BKN ST E OF 40E' W/ THE SRN
BNDRY AT ABOUT 28N, NRN EDGE HAS BEEN MOVG N TO 35N IN IQ, W/ SOME
MED ASSOC W/ SFC FRNT IS DVLPG E ALG THE FRNTL BNDRY AS S/WV (34N/
25E) MOVS E (25KTS) THRU THE SYSTEM. BKN SC IN NRN JORDAN/SYRIA
CONTS TO MOVE NE TOWARD CNTL TURKEY AT 20KTS.
4. (U) AREA FORECASTS -
A. (U) AREA 10
WINDS: NERN: 16010/15 ISOLD G22 11Z TO 18Z;
16008 AFT 18Z
CTRL: 18010T
WRN: 21015/25KT; 19010KT AFT 16Z
SRN: 13010KT
ERN: 09012/20KT; 08008KT AFT 15Z
VSBY/WX: 7
.
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