Document Page: First | Prev | Next | All | Image | This Release | SearchFile: 950901_0pgv072_90p.txt
Disease Outbreaks in Iraq Filename:0pgv072.90p SUBJECT: Disease Outbreaks in Iraq TO: DOI: 21 FEB 90 ANALYST: [ (b)(6) ] KEY JUDGEMENTS [ (b)(2) ] assessment is that major disease outbreaks currently have not occurred in Baghdad or Basrah. For severe outbreaks to develop, a protracted war or more extensive collateral damage would have to occur. However, conditions are favorable for communicable disease outbreaks, particularly in major urban areas affected by coalition bombing. Data necessary for determining expected numbers and rates of cases are not available, and any estimate would be totally unreliable. COMMENTS Infectious disease prevalence in major Iraqi urban areas targeted by coalition bombing (Baghdad, Basrah) undoubtedly has increased since the beginning of Desert Storm. However, reporting has been limited, conflictive, and non-specific, making the actual levels are unclear; specific diseases, numbers of cases, and groups affected have not been reported. Current public health problems are attributable to the reduction of normal preventive medicine, waste disposal, water purification and distribution, electricity, and the decreased ability to control disease outbreaks. Prior to Desert Storm, the Iraqi government broadcast several public civil defense preparation statements. The language used in some of the public health statements would allow the government to propagandize increases of endemic diseases on military conflict (and potentially on contamination by agents released as a result of damage inflicted by coalition forces on CBW facilities). Increased incidence of diseases in these cities is assessed to be due to increased occurrence of endemic diseases. Recent Iraqi controlled news releases to Multi-National Force audiences about the poor sanitary conditions in Baghdad is considered biased. Reportedly, the Iraqi government has denied ICRC staff into Iraq to evaluate current health problems (presumably the ICRC staff could refute the "deplorable" conditions). In contrast, broadcasts to "friendly" Arab countries have painted a "life as normal" situation in Baghdad. SUBJECT: Disease Outbreaks in Iraq cont. DOI: 21 FEB 9O Generalizations can be made on the most likely diseases to occur in significantly elevated or outbreak proportions over the near-term. MOST LIKELY DISEASES DURING THE NEXT 60-90 DAYS (DESCENDING ORDER) - Diarrheal diseases (particularly children) - Acute respiratory illnesses (colds and influenza) - Typhoid - Hepatitis A (particularly children) - Measles, diphtheria, and pertussis (particularly children) - Meningitis, including meningococcal (particularly children) - Cholera (possible, but less likely) MOST LIKELY DISEASES DURING THE FOLLOWING 90-180 DAYS - Diarrheal diseases (particularly children) - Acute respiratory illnesses (colds) - Typhoid - Hepatitis A (particularly children) - Conjunctivitis (Eye infections) - Measles, diphtheria, and pertussis (particularly children) - Cutaneous leishmaniasis - Meningococcal meningitis (particularly children) - Malaria - Cholera (possible, but less likely) Note: Filth fly populations can be expected to increase to high levels in warmer months, but their contribution to disease transmission is limited. The more proper analogy to make is that the circumstances that create favorable conditions for diarrheal diseases are the same that are favorable for massive fly populations. However, flies do not cause that much disease.
Document Page: First | Prev | Next | All | Image | This Release | Search