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File: 950901_0504rept_91.txt
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From: [   (b)(6)   ]              ~      Date and time ~ 

Date: Jan 91 15:18:35 EST
Comments: Forwarding note of Jan 91 15:17:40-EST from 

From:	                                --
*** Forwarding note from AFMICOPS--FSTCVMl 01/22/91 15:17 ***
Date: Jan 91 15:17:40 EST
To: arcentg2@sandman.[    b.2.    ]


1. Please Pass the attached information to:
[   (b)(6)   ]

2. As this is our first attempt over this circuit, please 
respond upon receip

of this message.

SUBJECT: Effects of Bombing on Disease Occurrence in Baghdad 

ANALYST: [   (b)(6)   ]


SUMMARY:  Food- and waterborne diseases have the greatest 
potential for outbreaks in the civilian and military 
population over the next 30 to 60 days.

Increased incidence of diseases will be attributable to 
degradation of normal preventive medicine, waste disposal, 
water purification/distribution, electricity, and decreased 
ability to control disease outbreaks. Any urban are

in Iraq that has received infrastructure damage will have 
similar problems. 

The following diseases are prioritized in descending order of 
expected outbreak potential in Baghdad over the next 30 to 60 
days. Prioritization is based on level of endemicity, seasonal 
distribution, and mode of transmission.


         Disease	  Primary Agents/Comments

    a. Acute Diarrheas	Bacterial: E. coli, Shigella spp., and
	Salmonella spp.

	Protozoal: Giardia lamblia (particularly
	children) and Entamoeba histolytica

Viral: Rotavirus (primarily children)

b. Typhoid/Paratyphoid Salmonella typhi, S. paratyphi

c. Cholera               Difficult to assess. Poorly reported. 
Outbreaks possible.

NOTE: Hepatitis A (HAV) is highly endemic, and therefore 
causes a limited

threat to the indigenous population.               -~


a. Influenza	Strain A(H3N2) predominates over A(HlNl) and B.

b. Meningococcal	Group A predominates, but W135 reporting has
   Meningitis	increased. Associated with overcrowding.

c. Childhood Diseases Primarily measles, but also diphtheria 
and pertussis.

d. Trachoma	Associated with poor personal hygiene.

e. Intestinal Helminths Primarily ascariasis, ancylostomiasis, 
enterobiasis, trichuriasis.

|SUBJECT: Effects of Bombing on Disease Occurrence in Baghdad 

3.  VECTORBORNE DISEASES: Generally, vectorborne diseases are 
more of a lon

term problem, with increased transmission occurring after 60 
days. However, increased incidence can be expected, especially 
in a prolonged military campaign.

a. Louse-borne typhus Rickettsia prowazekii. Associated with 
poor hygiene and overcrowding, especially in winter months.

b. Leishmaniasis	 Primarily cutaneous form due to Leishmania
	 tropica. Focal increase associated with debris

c. Malaria	Currently no indigenous transmission and
	considered a low risk. Potential vectors are

4.  More detailed explanations on conditions affecting 
expected disease occurrence are available. Extrapolation of 
this analysis should only be done after further consultation 
with AFMIC analysts.

|SUBJECT: Iraq - Medical Civil Defense Preparations and BW 

[   (b)(6)   ]
According to open source press releases in November and 
December, several Iraqi ministries delivered public health 
information announcements outlining precautions that civilians 
should be taking because of the Persian Gulf crisis

Early guidelines by the Ministry of Local Government called on 
citizens to avoid careless use of drinking water, such as 
using it for watering domestic gardens and washing cars and 
sidewalks". In late December, the Baghdad Domesti

Service stated that 'the enemy may resort to biological war 
means on human, animal, or plant targets; these germs include 
bacteria, viruses-, fungi, and parasites which cause malaria 
and dysentery". Also, the announcement provided guidelines in 
the following subject areas for protecting personnel, 
facilities food/water supplies, and crops from these 
biological agents:
A. Health precautions (NFI) to reduce possibility of 
B. Isolation of infected persons and contaminated areas to 
prevent spread of disease.
C. "Sterilization" (decontamination) of infected persons and 
contaminated equipment and areas.
D. Proper storage of food and water to avoid contamination.
E. Plans to protect crops.

Comment: These types of statements would increase public 
awareness and encourage the civilian population to take 
additional preventive measures against health problems (such 
as medical shortages and disease outbreaks) that would result 
from an infrastructure weakened by sanctions or military 
Early statements may represent a legitimate attempt by the 
Iraqi government to prepare the civilian population. However, 
as the United Nations deadline approached, the Iraqi 
government's tactics became more exploitative as indicated by 
the "biological war" announcement propagandizing a possible 
U.S. biological threat. (See AFMIC Weekly Wire 50-90 for 
additional information on similar disinformation statements.)

The government disinformation citing potential increases of 
endemic diseases that are not biological warfare candidates 
would allow the government to blame the United States for 
public health problems created by military conflict. 
Additionally, an even more subversive motive could have formed 
the rationale for the disinformation campaign. The statements 
would create a scenario that would allow the U.S. to be blamed 
for potential civilian biological warfare (BW) casualties 
resulting from Iraqi BW use or contamination by agents 
released as a result of damage inflicted by coalition forces 
on BW facilities. Military planners, particularly civil 
affairs and humanitarian assistance groups, and political 
officials should be aware of the potential for the Iraqi 
population to blame coalition forces for these problems.




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