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File: 971030_dsa151a_91d_001.txt
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[b.2.] SERIAL: DSA 151A-91 /*********** THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE ************/ SUBJECT: IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION UPDATE. DOI: 14 FEB 91 (AS OF 0930 EST) )) MAJOR POINTS )) 1. [b.1. sec. 1.5.c] IRAQ LAUNCHED TWO SRBMS [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] DEVELOPING SITUATION )) 5. IRAQI SRBM ATTACKS INTO NORTHERN SAUDI ARABIA TODAY PRESENTED SEVERAL FIRSTS IN BAGHDAD'S MISSILE STRATEGY. [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] IRAQ LAUNCHED TWO SRBMS [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.]. ACCORDING TO PRELIMINARY REPORTS EACH MISSILE BROKE INTO TWO PARTS, WITH PARTS IMPACTING [b.1. sec. 1.5.a., e., g.] IN THE VICINITY OF HAFAR AL BATIN. PATRIOT MISSILES REPORTEDLY ATTEMPTED TO INTERCEPT THE FIRST SRBM, BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL. THE SECOND SRBM WAS APPARENTLY OUT OF THE PATRIOT'S ENGAGEMENT ENVELOPE. THE EXTENT OF ANY DAMAGE DONE AT HAFAR AL BATIN IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME. COMMENT: THIS IS THE FIRST LAUNCH FROM [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] THE FIRST TIME IRAQ HAS ATTEMPTED TO LAUNCH AGAINST A MILITARY TARGET AT MID-DAY. IRAQ'S TARGETING OF THIS AREA MAY HAVE BEEN AN ATTEMPT TO INFLICT CASUALTIES AND CREATE DOUBTS AMONG THE COALITION'S ARAB PARTNERS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT CONTINUOUS COALITION COMBAT AIR PATROLS OVER PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED SRBM LAUNCH AREAS MAY HAVE CAUSED BAGHDAD TO MOVE TO NEW LAUNCH AREAS. FINALLY, THE LAUNCHING MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO THE US BOMBING OF THE BUNKER IN BAGHDAD YESTERDAY. IRAQ'S PREVIOUS SRBM LAUNCHES HAVE UNDENIABLY BEEN INTENDED AS TERROR ATTACKS AGAINST CIVILIAN POPULATION CENTERS. FURTHER, SUCH ATTACKS AT THIS TIME MIGHT REDUCE ANY WORLD SYMPATHY FOR CIVILIAN CASUALTIES AT THE BUNKER. THE REASONS FOR ITS USE OF MODIFIED SCUDS INSTEAD OF THE MORE ACCURATE SCUD-B, WITH ITS MORE POWERFUL WARHEAD, FROM A CLOSER LAUNCH SITE IS NOT CLEAR. )) DISCUSSION [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] 7. SINCE THE WAR BEGAN IN THE GULF, EPWS ARE REPORTED TO HAVE COME FROM AT LEAST 17 INFANTRY AND 4 ARMORED DIVISIONS, AS WELL AS SUPPORTING ARTILLERY AND AIR DEFENSE UNITS. MOST EPWS ARE OF LOW RANK, ARE VETERANS OF THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR WHO WERE RECALLED TO DUTY, AND ARE EXTREMELY TIRED OF WARTIME SERVICE. THE EPWS GENERALLY PUT UP LITTLE RESISTANCE TO COALITION INTERROGATION AND HAVE PROVIDED INFORMATION ON MILITARY ORDER OF BATTLE SUBJECTS, AND MORALE AND PSYCHOLOGICAL CONDITIONS. EPWS REPORT THAT MANY IRAQIS BELIEVE THAT IT WAS WRONG TO INVADE KUWAIT AND THAT THIS IS SADDAM'S WAR. POOR L1VING CONDITIONS, DISCRIMINATION AGAINST MINORITY SOLDIERS, SUPPLY PROBLEMS AND MALTREATMENT OF SOLDIERS BY OFFICERS CONTINUE TO SPUR DESERTIONS. COMMENT: EPWS HAVE REPORTED THAT MOST IRAQI DESERTERS HAVE FLED TO IRAQ AND THAT MANY OTHERS WOULD DESERT BUT FOR FEARS FOR THEIR OWN AND THEIR FAMILIES' SAFETY. FRONTLINE UNITS COULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE DEGRADED IN TERMS OF PERSONNEL STRENGTH THAN THE NUMBER OF EPWS SUGGEST. [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] 10. MISSILE/CHEMICAL ACTIVITY. RECENT IMAGERY REVEALS NEW DESTRUCTION OF SUSPECTED BIOLOGICAL AND/OR CHEMICAL WEAPON STORAGE BUNKERS IN IRAQ. A REFRIGERATED 12-FRAME BUNKER AT THE TIKRIT AMMUNITION DEPOT HAS BEEN DESTROYED. THIS IS THE 14TH OF 19 IDENTIFIED IRAQ1 SPECIAL REFRIGERATED BUNKERS DESTROYED TO DATE, REPRESENTING A 74 PERCENT DEGRADATION IN IRAQ'S CAPACITY TO STORE BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS OR OTHER HEAT-SENSITIVE MATERIEL, INCLUDING CHEMICAL WEAPONS. COMMENT: THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS THAT WEAPONS AND MATERIEL REQUIRING REFRIGERATED STORAGE COULD HAVE BEEN MOVED TO OTHER UNIDENTIF1ED, POSSIBLY CIVILIAN, FACILITIES BEFORE THE BUNKERS WERE HIT BY COALITION AIR STRIKES. 11. AT THE KIRKUK AMMUNITION DEPOT, TWO S-SHAPED BUNKERS SUSPECTED OF STORING CHEMICAL WEAPONS HAVE BEEN HEAVILY DAMAGED. TO DATE, 16 OF IRAQ'S 22 S-SHAPED BUNKERS HAVE BEEN DESTROYED, REPRESENTING A 73 PERCENT REDUCTION IN THIS TYPE OF FACILITY. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT SOME OF IRAQ'S CHEMICAL WEAPONS INVENTORY HAS BEEN DISPERSED TO INSURE SURVIVABILITY. AT THE QAYYARAH WEST AMMUNITION DEPOT, MUNITIONS DISPERSAL HAS BEEN IN PROGRESS SINCE EARLY FEBRUARY. RECENT ACTIVITY NEAR ONE OF THE FOUR S-SHAPED BUNKERS AT THIS DEPOT SUGGESTS THAT CHEMICAL WEAPONS MAY BE PRESENT IN NEW REVETTED, EARTH-COVERED STORAGE THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED JUST OUTSIDE THE DEPOT. 12. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF COLLATERAL CONTAMINATION AS A RESULT OF COALITION AIR STRIKES ON BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL RESEARCH, PRODUCTION, OR STORAGE FACILITIES. COMMENT: DECONTAMINATION EFFORTS HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED AT SITES THAT HAVE SUFFERED BOMB DAMAGE, INDICATING THAT IRAQ IS CONFIDENT THAT NO CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL CONTAMINATION HAS RESULTED. THE RUBBLE AND DEBRIS FORMED AS A RESULT OF A BOMB HIT WOULD PROBABLY CONTAIN MINIMAL CONTAMINATION, AND IRAQ MAY HAVE DECONTAMINATED CERTAIN AREAS WITHOUT BEING DETECTED. IRAQ PROBABLY EVACUATED AT LEAST SOME SENSITIVE FACILITIES PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF HOSTILITIES TO INSURE SURVIVABILITY OF EQUIPMENT, PROCESSING STOCKS, AND FILLED WEAPONS. [b.1. sec. 15.c.] [b.1. sec. 1.5. b., c., d.] [b.2.]
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