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File: 071596_cia_75701_75701_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: WHY WMD WERE WITHHELD Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST. MARCH 1991 MEMORANDUM SUBJECT: IRAQ: WHY WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION WERE WITHHELD 1. THE PROSPECT OF COALITION RETALIATION PROBABLY DETERRED SADDAM FROM EMPLOYING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AS PART OF IRAQ'S INITIAL DEFENSE AGAINST A COALITION GROUND ADVANCE. ONCE IRAQ'S FORWARD UNITS COLLAPSED A NUMBER OF FACTORS REINFORCED IRAQI RELUCTANCE AND REDUCED IRAQI CAPABILITY TO EMPLOY CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS. 2. WHAT INDICATIONS DID WE HAVE OF IRAQI PREPARATIONS FOR TACTICAL CHEMICAL WARFARE? IT IS CLEAR THAT THE RISK OF IRAQI EMPLOYMENT OF AT LEAST CHEMICAL WEAPONS DURING THE WAR HAD BEEN VERY HIGH. BAGHDAD'S PREPARATIONS FOR CHEMICAL WARFARE INDICATE THAT USE OF CHEMICALS WAS CONSIDERED AN OPTION EARLY IN THE CRISIS. DECONTAMINATION SITES WERE THROUGHOUT THE KUWAIT THEATER. 3. WHY DIDN'T IRAQ USE CW IN THE KUWAIT THEATER? A VARIETY OF REPORTING INDICATES THAT BAGHDAD INITIALLY WAS PROBABLY DETERRED FROM EMPLOYING CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AS PART OF ITS FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTATION THAT THE COALITION MIGHT RETALIATE MASSIVELY, POSSIBLY EVEN WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS. THE EXPECTATION OF US NUCLEAR RETALIATION WAS A COMMON PERCEPTION AND THAT THIS LED SADDAM TO NOT USE CHEMICALS. MANY IN BAGHDAD BELIEVED THAT THE COALITION WOULD RETALIATE IMMEDIATELY AND MASSIVELY AS SOON AS IRAQ EMPLOVED CHEMICAL WEAPONS IRAQI III CORPS PLANNING STATED THAT CHEMICAL WEAPONS USE WAS NEVER DISCUSSED IN PLANNING SESSIONS, AND CORPS STAFF ATTRIBUTED THIS TO SADDAM'S FEAR OF US NUCLEAR RETALIATION. 4. IT APPEARS THAT SADDAM ESTABLISHED A THRESHOLD, HOWEVER, AT WHICH HE WAS WILLING TO SET ASIDE HIS FEAR OF RETALIATION AND USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS. CHEMICAL WEAPONS WOULD BE USED IF COALITION FORCES PENETRATED INTO IRAQI TERRITORY. IRAQI PLANS AND PREPARATIONS NOTWITHSTANDING, A NUMBER OF PRACTICAL FACTORS PROBABLY CONSTRAINED BAGHDAD'S USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS ONCE THAT THRESHOLD WAS CROSSED BY THE COALITION ADVANCES: WEATHER CONDITIONS NEVER FAVORED THE USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS. RAIN AND HIGH WINDS THAT MOSTLY BLEW TO THE NORTH- -ONTO IRAQI UNITS OR TERRITORY--WOULD HAVE GREATLY REDUCED THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS. THE BATTLE DEVELOPED SO RAPIDLY THAT BAGHDAD PROBABLY WAS NEVER ABLE TO EFFECTIVELY TARGET COALITION FORCES. IN THE WAR WITH IRAN, AIRCRAFT AND GUARD ARTILLERY WERE BAGHDAD'S PRINCIPAL CHEMICAL DELIVERY MEANS. TOTAL COALITION AIR SUPREMACY PRECLUDED AIR-DELIVERED CHEMICAL WEAPONS AND MUCH OF THE GUARD ARTILLERY WAS DESTROYED BY AIR ATTACK OR OVERRUN BY COALITION GROUND FORCES. SUBJECT: IRAQ: WHY WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION WERE WITHHELD REPORTS INDICATE THAT IRAQI CHEMICAL ATTACKS DURING THE WAR WITH IRAN WERE NORMALLY PLANNED IN ADVANCE PRIOR TO DRAWING CHEMICAL ROUNDS FROM THEATER RESERVES. THE DISRUPTION OF IRAQI SUPPLY LINES AND THE LIGHTNING SPEED OF THE COALITION CAMPAIGN MADE THIS IMPOSSIBLE. 5. WHY DIDN'T IRAQ USE CW ON BALLISTIC MISSILES? SADDAM WAS PROBABLY SIMILARLY DISSUADED FROM LAUNCHING HIS SCUDS WITH CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WARHEADS OUT OF FEAR OF US OR ISRAELI NUCLEAR RETALIATION. ONCE SADDAM REALIZED THAT CONVENTIONAL MISSILE ATTACKS HAD FAILED TO DRAG ISRAEL INTO WAR, HE MAY HAVE CALCULATED THAT EVEN IF ISRAEL WAS FINALLY DRAWN INTO THE WAR, RESORTING TO WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION WOULD HAVE CAUSED DISPROPORTIONATE DAMAGE TO IRAQ. 1.5(c) 75701:75701
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