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Effect of Patriot Interception on SCUD Warhead Dissemination Filename:092pgv.91p [ (b)(2) ] RESPOND TO ITF TASKERS 3657 AND TASKERS 3547 PASS TO ITF OPS OFFICER 23 JAN 91, 1115 HRS, SENT BY: [ (b)(6) ] 23 January 1991 Subject: Effect of Patriot Interception on SCUD Warhead Dissemination Reference: OICC Task 3647, What if a Patriot hits a SCUD with 1)Mustard 2) Most Persistent Nerve Agent 3) Anthrax-Range of Options, Hit High/Low/Mid Altitude Range, due 01/23/91-0500; OICC Task 3657, Biological Warfare (BW) Employment, due 01/23/91-1200. Iraqi Chemical Delivery By Missile Iraq is assessed to have a limited number of SCUD warheads with chemical fills. The most likely chemical agents for these warheads are the persistent blister agent mustard and the semipersistent nerve agent GF. Both binary and unitary fill architecture may be available. The most likely warhead configuration for these munitions is a bulk fill, but it is possible that Iraq has successfully incorporated submunitions similar to those in cluster bombs into their SCUD chemical warheads. The use of submunitions could further improve dissemination efficiency. Chemical Dissemination by SCUD Missile Normal warhead function for a SCUD carrying chemicals is to airburst at some altitude. The burst spreads the chemical agent over a wide area. The Army Chemical Research Development and Engineering Center (CRDEC) estimates a bulk filled SCUD can cover an area of about 688 hectares to a contamination of 1.0 mg- min/m3 when filled with mustard; a GF fill could reach the same contamination level over 733 hectares. Both estimates are highly dependent on weather conditions in the target area, and could vary significantly. It is important to note that the missiles which have reached Tel Aviv and Riyadh contain significantly less payload than the figures assumed to make these estimates of contamination. The fill of the mustard-filled SCUD was 1311 pounds, while the fill weight for GF was 1166 pounds. The extended range SCUDs could carry only 100 to 400 pounds of agent. This will significantly reduce the area of contamination. The inclusion of submunitions could alter the probable area of contamination. Submunitions can be disseminated over a very wide area. The relatively hard submunitions can be forcefully ejected from the warhead by a blast. Once released, they are aerodynamically designed to land upright and dispense agent upon impact. This can be a very good way to disseminate biological agents as well. There is no evidence to conclude that Iraq has a warhead with chemical submunitions. No information on testing has been obtained, and experimentation with bursts at relatively high release points has not been seen. Nonetheless, Iraq does have submunition technology and chemical agents and missiles. They have the potential to make such a weapon, and could have done so without our knowledge. Biological Warheads Iraq is assessed to have some type of biological delivery capability. No details of the systems which Iraq would use to deliver BW agents are known. Some of the possibilities for BW delivery include cluster bombs, missile warheads and spray systems. Based on available information, none of these systems can be confirmed as containing BW agents. Dissemination of BW agents from missiles could be an effective way to deliver toxic agent. The missile would ideally be detonated at a relatively high altitude, perhaps greater than 10 kilometers, releasing submunitions loaded with agent. Due to the extreme virulence of the BW agents, these submunitions would be spread over a very wide area, perhaps as large as hundreds of square miles. The technology of BW dissemination using a missile warhead with submunitions is sophisticated, but within the capability of Iraq. Therefore, use of BW through this dissemination system cannot be ruled out. As noted above, Iraq has the agents, the missiles and the submunition production technology to produce these BW weapons. Their ability to effectively use them is suspect. Estimated Effects of Patriot Intercept The result of a Patriot intercept on a chemical warhead would be a much different event than an explosive detonation of a warhead. Rather than being explosively ejected at the ideal height, the agent will just drain out of the warhead. This will reduce the area of contamination significantly. Also, since the intercept will occur at an altitude in excess of the desired burst height, the losses of agent to the atmosphere will increase and further reduce the area of contamination. The impact of the Patriot could also act to aerosolize some of the agent. (This assumes the weapon would be set to burst lower than probable Patriot intercept.) In no case would Patriot intercept be expected to increase dissemination of agent. The destruction of the agent by the Patriot system would not mean the loss of agent toxicity. The Patriot wold not destroy the chemical or biological agent, just make it more difficult to reach the ground. Therefore, the Patriot will not completely eliminate the potential of the Iraqi missiles to deliver chemicals, but can greatly reduce their effect. The effect of intercept altitude makes prediction of expected contamination very difficult. If intercepted high enough, the missile payload would be completely diluted by the atmosphere without producing any contaminated area. Lower level intercepts will result in a much smaller area of contamination than the missile, but possibly with higher levels of contamination. POC is [ (b)(6) ]
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