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File: 970613_dsa181a_91d_txt_0001.txt
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(b.2.) SERIAL: DSA 181A-91 /*********** THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE ************ SUBJECT: IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION UPDATE DOI: 23 FEB 91 (AS OF 0930 EST) (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.) INDICATES THAT IRAQ HAS A NUMBER OF COMBAT AIRCRAFT CONFIGURED FOR SUICIDE CHEMICAL ATTACKS AGAINST COALITION FORCES AND, POSSIBLY, ISRAEL. (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.) IRAQ'S DEMONSTRATED ABILITY TO DELIVER CHEMICAL MUNITIONS WITH FIXED AND ROTARY WING AIRCRAFT, COUPLED WITH THE DETERIORAT1NG SITUATION IN KUWAIT, MAKES SUCH AN ATTACK AGAINST COALITION FORCES A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.) 8. MISSILE/CHEMICAL ACTIVITY. (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.) 23 FEBRUARY, TWO MODIFIED SCUDS WERE LAUNCHED (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.) WITH ONE POSSIBLY IMPACTING (b.1. sec. 1.5.a., c.)NORTHWEST OF DHAHRAN AND THE OTHER BREAKING UP IN-FLIGHT THERE IS NO INFORMATION REGARDING PATR1OT INTERCEPTS OR DAMAGE. 9. (S) IRAQI SHORT RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES (SRBM) ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE PLAYING A HIGHLY VISIBLE BUT RELATIVELY INEFFECTIVE ROLE AS THE GULF WAR MOVES TOWARD A GROUND CAMPAIGN. THE 78 SCUD-VARIANT SRBMS FIRED TO DATE AGAINST TARGETS IN ISRAEL, SAUDI ARABIA, AND BAHRAIN HAVE INFLICTED MINIMAL CASUALTIES AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.) 10. BAGHDAD'S LACK OF SUCCESS WITH ITS SRBM FORCE IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE SMALL WARHEAD SIZE, INACCURACY AT EXTENDED RANGES, AND SUCCESS OF PATRIOT AIR DEFENSE MISSILES. THE FIRST TWO REPRESENT DESIGN SHORTCOMINGS APPARENTLY INHERENT IN THE MODIFICATIONS REQUIRED TO EXTEND THE RANGE OF THE SCUD B'S 300 KILOMETERS TO AROUND 600 KILOMETERS FOR AN AL ABBAS. ALL THREE FACTORS LACK 'QUICK FIX' TECHNICAL CORRECTION, INDICATING THAT IRAQ HAS LITTLE PROSPECT FOR IMPROVED RESULTS FROM ITS SRBMS. THE SUBSTITUTION OF CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WARHEADS FOR CONVENTIONAL HIGH EXPLOSIVES MAY NOT BE AN OPTION; THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT NON-CONVENTIONAL WARHEADS ARE STILL IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGE, PLAGUED WITH TECHNICAL PROBLEMS, AND NOT AVAILABLE OPERATIONALLY. HOWEVER, IN THE FACE OF A COALITION-INITIATED GROUND WAR, BAGHDAD MAY BE TEMPTED TO LAUNCH NON-CONVENTIONAL ATTACKS WITH WHATEVER WARHEADS ARE AVAILABLE. (b.1. sec. 1.5.c.)
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