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File: 062096_cia_72206_72206_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: IRAQ'S CW CAPABILITIES & INTENTI Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST. IRAQI CAPABILITIES AND INTENTIONS TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS A CHRONOLOGY DISCUSSION WE HAVE LONG ARGUED THAT IRAQ WAS COMMITTING EXTENSIVE RESOURCES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CHEMICAL WEAPONS CAPABILITY. BAGHDAD'S SUCCESSFUL EMPLOYMENT OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS AGAINST IRAN AND NOTED THAT IRAQ CONTINUED TO ENLARGE AND ENHANCE ITS CHEMICAL WEAPONS ARSENAL. CAPABILITIES IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE INVASION OF KUWAIT, OUR ANALYSIS ASSOCIATED IRAQI CHEMICAL WEAPONS WITH VARIOUS DELIVERY SYSTEMS: IN AN AUGUST , WE JUDGED THAT IRAQ "ALMOST CERTAINLY" HAS A LIMITED NUMBER OF CW WARHEADS AVAILABLE FOR ITS SCUD MISSILES. IRAQ ALSO HAD A WIDE RANGE OF BATTLEFIELD-PROVEN DELIVERY OPTIONS, INCLUDING BOMBS, SHELLS AND ARTILLERY ROCKETS. SPECIAL FORCES OR OTHER AGENTS COULD COVERTLY DELIVER CHEMICAL'WEAPONS TO SELECTED TARGETS. BETWEEN THEN AND JANUARY, THE POSSIBLE LOCATIONS OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS STOCKS. IRAQI FORCES WERE STORING CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN KUWAIT AND DISPERSING THEM IN LARGE NUMBERS TO AIRFIELDS IN IRAQ. IRAQ MIGHT BE STORING CHEMICAL WEAPONS AT AN AMMUNITION STORAGE FACILITY. ACTIVITY SUGGESTED THAT THE IRAQIS WERE MOVING CHEMICAL WEAPONS FORWARD TO TACTICAL UNITS. THE DEPLOYMENT OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS UNITS TO SEVERAL FRONTLINE DIVISIONS IN KUWAIT. ARTILLERY UNITS THERE WERE PREPARED TO LAUNCH CHEMICAL ATTACKS. INTENTIONS WE ASSESSED THAT CW WARHEADS ON SCUDS WOULD ONLY BE USED AS A "LAST-DITCH EFFORT" TO BRING ISRAEL INTO THE WAR. THE VARYING CONDITIONS IN WHICH SADDAM MIGHT BE WILLING TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS AGAINST MEMBERS OF THE COALITION: IN COMBAT IRAQI FORCES WOULD BE "VIRTUALLY CERTAIN" TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS IF THEY WERE PUSHED BACK BY AN ALLIED OFFENSIVE. THERE WERE "STRONG INDICATIONS" THAT IRAQ WAS PREPARED TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN A POTENTIAL INVASION OF SAUDI ARABIA, EVEN IF THE UNITED STATES OR OTHER COUNTRIES INTERVENE. THAT THOUGH IRAQ HAD PREPARED ITS CHEMICAL WEAPONS FOR USE, IT WAS NOT NECESSARILY COMMITTED TO USING THEM. ON THE EVE OF THE WAR SADDAM MIGHT USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN "A VARIETY OF CIRCUMSTANCES" DURING THE INITIAL 48 HOURS OF A CONFLICT WITH THE ALLIES. AS THE AIR WAR PROCEEDED, WE CONTINUED TO RAISE THE POSSIBILITY OF CW STRIKES. IN COMMENTING ON IRAQ'S FAILURE TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS, ASSESSED THAT THE STEADFASTNESS OF THE COALITION MIGHT PERSUADE SADDAM THAT ESCALATION TO CHEMICAL ATTACKS WAS NECESSARY. JUDGED THAT SADDAM "MIGHT" LAUNCH LIMITED CHEMICAL WEAPONS ATTACKS AGAINST SAUDI ARABIA. ON THE EVE OF THE GROUND WAR, WE CONTINUED TO BELIEVE IRAQ WOULD RESORT TO CHEMICAL WEAPONS WHILE JUDGING THAT IT WOULD PROBABLY BE INEFFECTIVE. ARGUED IT WAS "LIKELY" THAT IRAQ WOULD USE CHEMICALS TO TRY TO STOP ANY COALITION ATTACK THAT THREATENS TO OVERWHELM ITS FORCES. AT THE SAME TIME, IT RAISED SEVERAL PROBLEMS THAT WOULD COMPLICATE OR INHIBIT SUCH USE: THE EXPIRATION DATE OF 70% OF ITS DECONTAMINATION KITS HAD EXPIRED. TROOPS HANDLING CHEMICAL WEAPONS HAD INSUFFICIENT PROTECTIVE GEAR. EFFECTIVE DELIVERY OF CHEMICALS BY AIRCRAFT SEEMED UNLIKELY BECAUSE OF ALLIED AIR SUPERIORITY. BAGHDAD'S LACK OF TACTICAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE HIGH MOBILITY OF COALITION FORCES WOULD HAMPER ITS ABILITY TO FIND TARGETS. 72206-72206 1.5 (C)
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