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File: 971030_dsa91a_91d_001.txt
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[b.2.] SERIAL: DSA 91A-91 /*********** THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE ************/ SUBJECT: IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION UPDATE. DOI: 27 JAN 91 (AS OF 0100 EST) [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] DISCUSSION [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] 9. MISSILE/CHEMICAL INTELLIGENCE. [b.1. sec 1.5.c.] THERE HAVE BEEN FIVE ADDITIONAL IRAQI MODIFIED SCUD MISSILES LAUNCHED. THE FIRST LAUNCH [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] DETONATED IN RIYADH. THE FOLLOWING FOUR WERE LAUNCHED [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] TOWARDS TEL AVIV. PRELIMINARY DATA FAILS TO INDICATE IF ANY OF THE MISSILES IMPACTED [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] 10. A SURVEY OF SCUD LAUNCH DATA BASED ON MISSILES ATTACKS BETWEEN 17 AND 25 JANUARY FAILED TO UNCOVER DEFINITIVE LAUNCH TIMING 1NDICATORS. WHILE LAUNCHES USUALLY OCCUR APPROXIMATELY THREE HOURS AFTER THE COMPLETION OF ANY COALITION AIR OPERATION NEAR THE LAUNCH SITE, THE ABSENCE OF AIR ACTIVITY DOES NOT NECESSARILY LEAD TO A LAUNCH. ALSO, ON 25 JANUARY, ONE LAUNCH TOOK PLACE WHILE COALITION AIRCRAFT WERE STILL IN THE AREA. [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] ([b.1. sec 1.5.c.] ACCORDING TO [b.1. sec 1.5.c.] SADDAM HUSAYN HAS GIVEN THE ORDER TO BEGIN USING CHEMICAL WARFARE ON 27 JANUARY. COMMENT: THIS UNSUBSTANTIATED REPORT FOLLOWS SEVERAL RECENT INDICATORS THAT SADDAM IS, AT THE VERY LEAST, WAGING A PSYCHOLOGICAL CAMPAIGN TO PREPARE BOTH IRAQI CITIZENS AND COALITION ADVERSARIES FOR EMPLOYMENT OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS. HE HAS NOT RELENTED IN HIS THREAT TO USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS. [b.1. sec 1.5.c.] [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] 19. THE MINA AL AHMADI SEA ISLAND TERMINAL, SITE OF THE MAJOR OIL SPILL, WAS ON FIRE ON THE 26TH. BILLOWING DARK SMOKE WAS EMANATING FROM THE TERMINAL. [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] 20. LARGE AMOUNTS OF OIL IN VARYING CONCENTRATIONS ALONG A 48 NM STRETCH OF THE KUWAITI-SAUDI COASTLINE. THE OIL SLICKS EXTENDED FROM THE BURNING MINA AL AHMADI SEA ISLAND TERMINAL, OFFSHORE ASH SHUAYBAH, SOUTH TO RAS AL KHAFJI, SAUDI ARABIA. ONE OF THE HEAVIER CONCENTRATIONS OF OIL APPROXIMATELY 7 NM OFFSHORE THE NAVAL BASE AT RAS AL QULAYAH. 21. TWO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONCENTRATIONS OF OIL NORTH OF RAS AL QULAYAH IN THE ASH SHUAYBAH AREA. [b.1. sec 1.5.c.] 22. AT THE MINA AL BAKR POL TERMINAL, TWO LONG TRAILS OF OIL HAVE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE TWO POL TRANSFER POSITIONS AT THE TERMINAL [b.1. sec 1.5.c.] ALSO, THE DAMAGED IRAQI TANKER "AMURIYAH," PARTIALLY SUBMERGED SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL. 23.[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] THE THREAT POSED BY THE GULF OIL SLICK TO THE KINGDOM'S FRESH WATER SUPPLY COULD BE SEVERE. SAUDI ARABIA'S DESALINATION AND D1STRIBUTION SYSTEM, DESCRIBED AS THE MOST COMPLEX IN THE WORLD, CONSISTS OF 21 DESALINATION PLANTS THROUGHOUT THE KINGDOM WITH A COMBINED PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF ABOUT 530 MILLION GALLONS A DAY. THREE PLANTS, LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST AT AL JUBAYL, AL KHOBAR, AND AL KHAFJI, PRODUCE ABOUT 65 PERCENT OF SAUDI'S FRESHWATER CONSUMPTION. COMMENT: IF THE OIL SLICK WERE TOFORCE ALL THREE GULF PLANTS TO SHUT DOWN, SOME FORM OF WATER RATIONING PROGRAM WOULD MOST LIKELY BE INSTITUTED. THE BACKUP SYSTEM FOR THE SAUDI EAST COAST IS A SERIES OF HEAVILY MINERALIZED WELLS, WHICH IS A HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE SOURCE OF DRINKING WATER. [b.1. sec 1.5.c.] 25. POLITICAL/DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS .[b.1. sec. 1.5.c.REPORTED THAT SADDAM HUSAYN PLANS TO ]INAUGURATE TWO MAJOR CONTINGENCY PLANS AGAINST COALITION FORCES AS HIS "SECRET WEAPONS". THE FIRST IS TO DESTROY ALL OIL FIELDS AND REFINERIES IN KUWAIT IN AN EFFORT TO BRING ABOUT AN ENVIRONMENTAL HOLOCAUST. THE SECOND INVOLVES BRINGING IRAN INTO THE WAR AS AN ALLY BY DESTROYING ISLAMIC SITES IN IRAQ THAT ARE CONSIDERED SACRED TO THE SHIA SECT, AND THEN BLAMING THE DESTRUCTION ON COALITION BDMBING. HUSAYN WAS SAID TO BELIEVE THAT, IF IRAN ENTERED THE WAR, THE REST OF THE ARAB WORLD WOULD ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AND JOIN THE FIGHT AGAINST THE WEST. COMMENT: THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS INFORMATION IS ANTI-IRAQI PROPAGANDA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NONETHELESS, THE FIRST PART OF THIS ALLEGED HUSAYN PLAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN INITIATED. MOREOVER, A PERCEIVED COALITION ATTACK ON SHIA SHRINES AT AL NAJAF AND KARBALA WOULD UNQUESTIONABLY BE VIEWED BY ISLAMIC RADICALS IN TEHRAN AS A MAJOR WESTERN MOVE AGAINST ISLAM. [b.1. sec. 1.5.c.] 27. ISRAEL [b.1. sec. 1.5.c., d,] . ISRAEL RADIO REPORTED ON THE 25TH, THAT SCUDS CAUSED DAMAGE TO BOTH JEWISH AND ARAB HOUSES IN HAIFA, WHICH HAS A LARGE ARAB COMMUNITY. COMMENT: AS THE NUMBER OF ISRAELI CASUALTIES RISE, PRESSURE WITHIN HARDLINE GOVERNMENT AND MINORITY ELEMENTS WILL CERTAINLY MOUNT FOR SOME SORT OF MILITARY RESPONSE. HOWEVER, POLLS STILL FAVOR RESTRAINT OVER RETALIATION. THE PEOPLE'S ABILITY TO WITHSTAND ATTACKS AND THE POLITICAL CREDIT ISRAEL IS GAINING INTERNATIONALLY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO ASSUAGE THE GOVERNMENT FOR NOW. [b.1. sec. 1.5 c.] [b.2.]
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