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File: cia_65549_65549_01.txt
Page: 01
Total Pages: 1
Subject: IRAQ CW Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON REQUEST. 1. WE HAVE NO INFORMATION TO CONFIRM THAT IRAQ HAS DEVELOPED OR MANUFACTURED BW WARHEADS FOR ITS BALLISTIC MISSILES. HOWEVER, IRAQ HAS THE ABILITY TO WEAPONIZE ITS BW AGENTS-- INCLUDING ANTHRAX SPORES--AND WE BELIEVE IT IS WELL WITHIN IRAQ'S TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES TO PRODUCE BW WARHEADS FOR ITS SCUD MISSILES. 2. IT PROBABLY WOULD TAKE ONLY ONE BW WARHEAD TO NEUTRALIZE ANYONE GIVEN TARGET. OUR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AL HUSAYN, CARRYING ABOUT 100 KG OF DRIED ANTHRAX SPORES, WOULD THEORETICALLY PRODUCE A MAXIMUM AREA OF LETHAL CONTAMINATION OF 1,600 SQUARE KILOMETERS. THAT WOULD BE A DISPERSION AREA ABOUT 90 KM LONG AND 15 KM WIDE AT THE WIDEST POINT. OTHER IRAQI BW AGENTS WOULD BE EQUALLY POTENT: BOTULINUS TOXIN WOULD PRODUCE A MAXIMUM LETHAL AREA OF CONTAMINATION OF ABOUT 21 SQUARE KILOMETERS AND ANTHRAX SPORES IN SOLUTION WOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF ABOUT 110 SQUARE KILOMETERS. BY WAY OF CONTRAST, A COMPARABLE CW FILL WOULD HAVE A MAXIMUM AREA OF LETHAL CONTAMINATION OF ABOUT 0.0036 SQUARE KILOMETERS FOR SULFUR MUSTARD, 0.067 SQUARE KILOMETERS FOR SARIN, AND 0.36 SQUARE KILOMETERS FOR VX. IRAQ ONLY NEEDS A FEW BW-TIPPED MISSILES IN ITS STOCKPILE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CASUALTIES. END OF MESSAGE 1.5(c) 65549:65549
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