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File: 110196_aacbr_02.txtTO APPROXIMATELY 18KTS. HIGH PRESSURE (1024MB) CENTERED AT 27N/44E FOLLOWED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF. WINDS BEHIND THE TROF WERE GUSTING TO OVER 30 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE DAMP GROUND KEPT SAND FROM BEING RAISED AND THE RESULT WAS GENERALLY GOOD VISIBILITY IN THESE AREAS. THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE TROF RANGED FROM 5 TO 10 CELSIUS DEGREES. ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE (1023MB) WAQS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN MED (33n/29e). fURTHER WEST, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER (1007MB) WAS LOCATED AT 39N/14E, ACCOMPANIED BY 15 KT WINDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSHOWERS. THE 00Z FNOC RUN INITIALIZED WELL BASED ON THE MODEL'S POSITION OF THE TROF OVER SA AND THE LOW IN THE MED. HOWEVER, SFC WND SPEEDS WERE UNDERFORECAST BY APPROX. 10KTS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, THE TROF OVER THE SAUDI ARABIAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH, LYING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA BY EOP. WINDS ALONG THE PERSIAN GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE EXTREME TEMP AND PRES CONTRASTS BEHIND THE TROF BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERALLY GOOD CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AID FOG FORMATION IN THE UAE, AND SONE PATCHES KILL ALSO FORM INLAND OVER SOUTHERN SA AND IN TUE TIGRIS/EUPURATES VALLEY THERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR. IN THE MED, THE SYSTEM NEAR SICILY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AT APPROX 12KTS, REACHING 35N/28E BY EOP AND BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED WINDS, CLOUDINESS, AND CONVECTION. 2. PAR: B: SEA SURFACE DATA VT: 16/00Z POINT I POINT 2 POINT 3 - (26N/52E) (22N/64E) (18N/40E) TEMP (C) 21 24 27 WAVE DIR 320 040 130 PERIOD SEC 4 4 4 HEIGHT FT 4 4 4 3. (u) PART C; METSAT DISCUSSION: PROMINENT FEATURE OVR THE AOR ON THE LATEST DMSP IMAGERY IS THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CNTRL SA FROM THE WRN ARABIAN MTNS AT 22N/40E TO SRN IRAN 25N/65E. CLOUDINESS THRU THIS FLOW ORIGINATES W/THE RED SEA TROF PROVIDING LLVL CONVRGENCE AND MOISTURE THAT IS TEN LIFTED OROGRAPHICALLY OVR THE MTNS TO FORM ACAS. RADIATION FOG IN CNTRL SYRIA AND IRAQ DVLPD IN AREAS THAT RCVD PCPN W/IN THE LAST 48HRS, W/SOME ADVECTION OCCURING IN THE TIGRIS/EUPHRATEST VALLEY UNDER NW FLOW. DTNSW AREA OF STS AND SC HAS WEDGED ITSELF AGAINST THE ZAGROS MTNS ALONG THE IRAQ/IRAN BORDER ASSOCIATED W/AN ELONGATED TROF AT 850MB, ALL THAT REMAINS OF A CLOSED LOW THAT TRAVERSED IRAQ YESTERDAY. 850MB TROF AND CLOUDINESS XTNDS FROM THE SRN COAST OF THE CASPIAN SEA SWRD ALNG 50E TO THE CNTRL PERSIAN GULF. CAA OVR THE NRN GULF IS FORMING CLOSED CELL SC AND FURTHER ADVECTING THE SC CLOUDINESS SOUTHEASTWARD TO QATAR. BKN AREAOF CLOSED CELL SC IN ARABIAN SEA S OF 15 N FORMED FROM LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WESTERWARD W/OUT FURTHER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. 4. PART D: AREA FORECASTS A. AREA 10 (ALL OF SA, YEMEM, UAE AND OMAN)- WINDS: NERN 3301O/15KT ISOLD G25KT; 33012KT APT 15Z
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